US Treasuries
- Treasuries rallied on reports of an agreement between the US and Iran
- 10s closed on Thursday at 4.57 [Thursday’s range in 10s: 4.55/4.63]
- 2s closed on Thursday at 4.08 [Thursday’s range in 2s: 4.045/4.115]
- 2y – 5y: + 17 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 50 bps
Intraday News Moving Markets
Jim Bianco:
This crossed around 5:25 AM CT:
IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER HAS ORDERED THAT NEAR-WEAPONS-GRADE URANIUM MUST STAY IN IRAN, TWO SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCES SAY
Green highlights the reaction to this headline.
Again, the overwhelming consensus is that this war will end in days to a few weeks, and when it does, the price of crude oil will collapse. They react this way because they are betting on what they want. It doesn’t mean that is what they will get.
The fed funds futures contracts are pricing an 84% probability that the Fed will HIKE rates before the end of the year. Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chairman tomorrow at the White House.
- Bloomberg: Iran in Talks With Oman Over Permanent Hormuz Toll System
- Bloomberg: Home Buyers Hammered as War-Fueled Bond Rout Drives Rates Higher
- Fed’s Barkin: Says Repeated Supply Shocks Test Inflation Anchor
On Deck tomorrow, Friday, 5/22:
- Economic Releases: University of Michigan Sentiment / Conditions / Expectations and Kansas City Fed Services Activity
On Deck next week:
- Auctions: Tuesday, 5/26: $69 Billion UST 2y Auction; Wed, 5/27: $70 Billion UST 5y Auction and Thursday, 5/28: $44 Billion UST 7y Auction
Commodities
- Gold decreased to $4,539 an ounce [84% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver increased to $76.65 an ounce [65% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
The national average gasoline price set a new post-war (since February 27) high yesterday.
In the News
Successful Farming: Soybean Planting Remains Below 50% in 3 Major States
To hear more on the health of the U.S. consumer, check out our Arbor Data Science Podcast, featuring Sam Rines, out tomorrow in Daily Data Points:
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/22/2026 at 10:00am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 5/22/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations / 1Yr & 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 5/22/2026 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 5/26/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 5/26/2026 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 5/26/2026 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
- 5/26/2026 at 09:00am EST: House Price Purchase Index QoQ
- 5/26/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA
- 5/26/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS HPI YoY NSA
- 5/26/2026 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
- 5/26/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
- 5/27/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 5/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
- 5/27/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM and YoY / Core PCE Price Index MoM and YoY
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
- 5/28/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 5/28/2026 at 08:55am EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Reykjavik Economic Conference
- 5/28/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Homes Sales / MoM
- 5/28/2026 at 10:15am EST: St. Louis Fed’s Musalem Speaks at Reykjavik
- 5/28/2026: Building Permits / MoM
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Friday, May 22, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
BJ’s Wholesale |
BJ |
$1.03 per share |
|
Booz Allen Hamilton |
BAH |
1.34 |
|
Global Ship Lease |
GSL |
2.40 |