US Treasuries
- Curve steepened as the long end sold off and the front end rallied; inflation and the Iran conflict kept uncertainty elevated.
- 10s closed on Friday at 4.45 [Friday’s range in 10s: 4.46/4.425]
- 2s closed on Friday at 4.01 [Friday’s range in 2s: 3.98/4.03]
- 2y – 5y: + 13 bps
- 2y – 10y: + 43 bps
Jim Bianco: Trump posted this about 30 minutes ago.
As the headline above says, he is literally in the situation room now deciding whether to accept the two page MOU.
A three-day tick chart of crude oil is slumping to new lows right now.
The market expects him to accept the deal, and this will be the beginning of the end.
Note the definition of “reopen” that any day hit 60 ships crossing the Strait as measured by IMF Port Watch.
Here is the latest from that measure.
I added July (red) to the chart
I personally think this is a fantasy that Iran will allow this much shipping to go through before the end of the 60-day MOU (the end of July).
My position is a minority position.
- Bloomberg: Fed’s Bowman Says Too Soon to Judge Inflation Impact of Iran War
- Bloomberg: Fed’s Schmid Says Officials Must Stay Focused on Inflation
Commodities
- Gold increased to $4,556 an ounce [84% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26]
- Silver declined to $75.75 an ounce [65% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Treasury Buyback Schedule
US Treasury Trade Fails
As of 5/28/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $28.55 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $16.97 million.
TIPS by Maturity
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $24.4 Bn on 5/13/2026 to $24.4 Bn on 5/20/2026 = $0.0 Bn
- 2 – 6 years: $4.6 Bn on 5/13/2026 to $5.2 Bn on 5/20/2026 = $0.6 Bn
- 6 – 11 years: $1.2 Bn on 5/13/2026 to $1.8 Bn on 5/20/2026 = $0.6 Bn
- > 11 years: $1,189 Mn on 5/13/2026 to $889 Mn on 5/6/2026 = ($300) Mn
In the News
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 5/31/2026 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Stablecoins
- 5/31/2026 at 08:30pm EST: Fed’s Powell Speaks at Award Ceremony
- 6/01/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 6/01/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 6/02/2026 at 01:50am EST: Fed’s Kashkari in Panel Discussion
- 6/02/2026 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 6/02/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings & Rate / JOLTS Quits Level & Rate / JOLTS Layoffs Level & Rate
- 6/02/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 6/03/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 6/03/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 6/03/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Barr in Moderated Discussion
- 6/03/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 6/03/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans
- 6/03/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 6/03/2026 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
- 6/03/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 6/03/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 6/03/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Logan in Moderated Discussion
- 6/04/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts Total / YoY
- 6/04/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Barkin Fireside Chat
- 6/04/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 6/04/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 6/04/2026 at 01:10pm EST: Fed’s Daly at Bloomberg Technology Summit
- 6/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 6/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 6/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Change
- 6/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY / Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 6/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Underemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate
- 6/05/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Monday, June 1, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Release
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Science Applications |
SAIC |
$2.28 per share |
|
Company |
Symbol |
Earnings estimate |
|
Credo Technology Group |
CRDO |
$1.02 per share |
|
Hewlett Packard Enterprise |
HPE |
0.53 |