End of Day Summary – May 4, 2026

US Treasuries

• Treasuries yields climbed along with oil prices driven by escalating tensions over the Strait of Hormuz that fueled global inflation concerns
• 10s closed on Monday at 4.44 [Monday’s range in 10s: 4.39/4.46] 
• 2s closed on Monday at 3.95 [Monday’s range in 2s: 3.90/3.99]
• 2y – 5y:   – 20 bps
• 2y – 10y: – 31 bps  

Intraday News Moving Markets

• Middle East tensions escalated with the UAE blaming Iran for a drone strike at its Fujairah port 
• Jim Bianco: July Brent Crude Oil gyrations over the last 24 hours on every War headline.

• 30y yield hit 5.01% for the first time since last July
• Jim Bianco:  The 30-year yield is now 8 bps away from a new 18-year high

• Fed Speak: Fed’s Williams Says Rates Well Positioned Amid War Uncertainty
• On deck Wednesday morning (5/6/26): US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
• US Treasury Boosts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $189 Billion (up $80 billion from the $109 billion it projected in February 2026)

Commodities

• Gold and silver extended losses after the UAE reported that it intercepted missiles
• Gold declined to $4,513 an ounce [83% of its recent high of $5,417 an ounce on 1/28/26] 
• Silver declined to $72.66 an ounce [62% of its recent high of $116.70 an an ounce on 1/28/26]

---

What does the oil market think? Both the July (orange) and December (blue) Brent Crude Oil Futures Contracts are at new highs.

The December contract is now above $90, signaling that the market expects crude oil to be above $90 for the next seven months.

---

Oil’s impact on the bond market: 

I would argue that oil (blue) is driving bond volatility (orange), not the other way around.

That means wider daily ranges and, given the current environment, higher yields (>volatility = higher yields).