End of Day Summary – 1/26/2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

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US Treasuries

UST 10s on Monday closed at 4.21%.
Looking ahead for the week, we have a 1st weekly resistance zone of 4.20% – 4.205% (63% shot to hold) and a 2nd weekly resistance zone of 4.155% – 4.16% (50% shot to hold).
Our 1st monthly resistance zone is 4.035% – 4.065% which has held for 30 months.
We have a 1st weekly support zone of 4.285% – 4.29% (60% shot to hold).
On Deck tomorrow, Tuesday, 1/27/26:
- $70 billion UST 5y Note Auction
- FOMC Kicks off its two day Meeting

In the News

SupplyChainBrain: VW May Pull Plans for U.S. Audi Plant Absent Tariff Cuts, CEO Says

InsideEVs: Michigan is Suing Oil Companies For ‘Suppressing’ EVs

OilPrice: U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit $6 For First Time Since 2022 amid Big Freeze

Arbor Data Science: Natural Gas Demand Heats Up as Temperatures Cool Down

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

1/17/2026 – 1/29/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
1/27/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
1/27/2026 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM
1/27/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA / US HPI YoY NSA
1/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
1/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
1/27/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
1/28/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
1/28/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision
1/28/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate
1/28/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Reverse Repo Rate
1/29/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
1/29/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
1/29/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans
1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durable Goods Ex Transportation
1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
1/29/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
1/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
1/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM / PPI Final Demand YoY
1/30/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY / PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
1/30/2026 at 09:45am EST: MNI Chicago PMI
1/30/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy and Policy
2/02/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
2/02/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
2/02/2026 at 12:30pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Economy and Policy
2/02/2026 at 03:00pm EST: US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates