End of Day Summary – 2/03/2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

Download this Report to Print

US Treasuries

UST 10s on Tuesday closed at 4.27%.
Our 1st weekly support zone is 4.27% – 4.285% (62% shot to hold). Our 2nd weekly support zone is 4.325% – 4.33% (80% shot to hold).
Our 1st monthly support zone is 4.32% – 4.345% (85% shot to get in and 73% shot to hold).
Our 1st weekly resistance zone is 4.195% – 4.205%, which has held for the last 10 weeks.

Fed’s Miran: Says Fed Needs to Cut Rates by More Than a Point This Year
Fed’s Barkin: Focused on ‘Last Mile’ in Reaching Inflation Target
On Deck: Wednesday, 2/4/26, US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement

NBC: House passes bill to end the shut down and punt on DHS funding, sending it to Trump

Join Us Tomorrow, Wednesday, February 4th, For Our Next Conference Call Featuring Jim Bianco

Register Here

Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco

The Trump 2.0 $BTC rally has now been reversed. *BITCOIN DROPS TO LOWEST PRICE SINCE TRUMP’S ELECTION VICTORY

The correction is now 41.5% since the October 6, 2025 high ($126k)

In the News

Bloomberg: Gold and Silver Fans “Hate This New Volatility’ But Keep the Faith

OilPrice: Oil Tanker Rates Soar Amid Shipping Shortages and Middle East Tensions

Axios: Car insurance rates are falling – but not everywhere

Redfin News: Luxury Home Prices Keep Climbing Despite Sluggish Demand

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

*Note: JOLTS Report delayed by Government Shutdown [originally scheduled for 2/3/26 at 10:00am EST]

*Note: January Nonfarm Payrolls delayed by Government Shutdown [originally scheduled for 2/6/26 at 8:30am EST]

2/04/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
2/04/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
2/04/2026 at 08:30am EST: US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
2/04/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / Composite PMI
2/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
2/04/2026 at 06:30pm EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Monetary Policy and Economy
2/05/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
2/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
2/05/2026 at 10:50am EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks with Dean of Clark Atlanta University
2/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions/ Expectations
2/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
2/06/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on the Economy
2/06/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
2/09/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
2/09/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Digital Assets
2/09/2026 at 03:15pm EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Moderated Conversation
2/10/2026 at 06:00am EST: NFIB Small Business Optimism
2/10/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
2/10/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM / YoY / ex Petroleum MoM
2/10/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index YoY / MoM
2/10/2026 at 08:30am EST: Employment Cost Index
2/10/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Ex Auto MoM / Ex Auto and Gas / Control Group
2/10/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
2/10/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Banking and Economic Outlook
2/10/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Asset Management Derivatives Forum