End of Day Summary – 2/17/2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

UST 10s on Tuesday closed at 4.05%.

— 1st weekly resist at 3.975% / 3.985% 50%to hold on the week
—> 2nd weekly resist at 3.925% / 3.94%
— 1st monthly resist at 4.12% / 4.14% this zone has held for last 11 mos
—> 2nd monthly resist at 4.03% / 4.055% 65% to hold on the week

— 1st weekly support at 4.11% / 4.14% 90% to hold on the week

On Deck for Wednesday, 2/18/26: $16 Billion UST 20y Bond Auction and FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed’s Goolsbee: Sees Several Rate Cuts If Inflation Heads Lower
Fed’s Barr: Says Likely Appropriate to Hold Rates for ‘Some Time’
Fed’s Daly: Says Fed Officials Should Watch for Signs of AI Impact

US Trade Fails

As of 2/13/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $28.19 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $64.29 million.

In the News

OilPrice: Oil Prices Rise as Iran Closes Parts of the Straight of Hormuz for Naval Drills

Why does it matter? “The strait carries about 20 million bpd, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.”

FarmPolicyNews: Number of U.S. Farms Shrank by 15,000 in 2025

FarmProgress: America’s vanishing cattle herd drives 15% price hikes for beef

How might meat plants look in the future? On X:

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

2/18/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
2/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: Census Releases Nov. and Dec. Housing Starts Data on Feb. 18
2/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportations
2/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef ex Air
2/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Building Permits
2/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts MoM / Building Permits MoM
2/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
2/18/2026 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM / Manufacturing (SIC Production)
2/18/2026 at 09:15am EST: Capacity Utilization
2/18/2026 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
2/18/2026 at 01:00pm EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks in Washington
2/18/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
2/18/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
2/19/2026 at 08:20am EST: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks at the Banking Outlook Conference
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Bowman Gives Opening Remarks at Banking Conference
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance/ Imports MoM SA/ Exports MoM SA
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM/ Retail Inventories MoM
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
2/19/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Kashkari in Fireside Chat on Economic Outlook
2/19/2026 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
2/19/2026 at 10:30am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
2/20/2026 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM / YoY / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
2/20/2026 at 09:45am EST: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation
2/20/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases Nov. and Dec. New Home Sales Data on Feb. 20
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / MoM
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5 – 10 Yr Inflation
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: Building Permits / MoM
2/20/2026 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Regulation Conference
2/23/2026 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
2/23/2026 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
2/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans / Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
2/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
2/23/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity
2/24/2026 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Economy
2/24/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
2/24/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Collins Gives Opening Remarks
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Discussion
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM / House Price Purchase Index QoQ
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: House Price Purchase Index MoM
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA / S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA
2/24/2026 at 09:10am EST: Fed’s Waller Gives Keynote Address
2/24/2026 at 09:35am EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on AI
2/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
2/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
2/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Trade Sales MoM
2/24/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
2/24/2026 at 03:15pm EST: Fed’s Barkin & Collins on Panel