End of Day Summary – 2/18/2026 – Arbor Research & Trading, LLC

US Treasuries

UST 10s on Wednesday closed at 4.09%.

— 1st weekly support at 4.11% / 4.125% 90% to hold on the week
—> 2nd weekly support at 4.165% / 4.18%

— 1st weekly resist at 3.975% / 3.985%
—> 2nd weekly resist at 3.925% / 3.94%
— 1st monthly resist at 4.12% / 4.14% this zone has held for last 11 mos
—> 2nd monthly resist at 4.03% / 4.055% 73% to hold on the week

On Deck for Thursday, 2/19/26: $9 Billion UST 30y TIPS Auction
Bloomberg: Bond Investors Are Settling for Too Little

In the News

OilPrice: Big Tech Turns to Uranium as Data Center Power Demand Soars

ZeroHedge: Package-Food Stocks Sink After “Most Downbeat” Consumer Conference, General Mills Guidance Woes

FreightWaves: J.B. Hunt ‘a little bit more positive’

CNBC: The ‘boomcession’: Why Americans feel left behind by a growing economy

Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak

2/19/2026 at 08:20am EST: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks at the Banking Outlook Conference
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Fed’s Bowman Gives Opening Remarks at Banking Conference
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Advance Goods Trade Balance/ Imports MoM SA/ Exports MoM SA
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM/ Retail Inventories MoM
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
2/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Exports MoM / Imports MoM
2/19/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Kashkari in Fireside Chat on Economic Outlook
2/19/2026 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
2/19/2026 at 10:30am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
2/20/2026 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM / YoY / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
2/20/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption
2/20/2026 at 09:45am EST: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation
2/20/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: Census Releases Nov. and Dec. New Home Sales Data on Feb. 20
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / MoM
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5 – 10 Yr Inflation
2/20/2026 at 10:00am EST: Building Permits / MoM
2/20/2026 at 01:15pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Regulation Conference
2/23/2026 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
2/23/2026 at 08:45am EST: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
2/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Ex Trans / Durable Goods Orders / Ex Transportation
2/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
2/23/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity
2/24/2026 at 08:00am EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Economy
2/24/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
2/24/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Collins Gives Opening Remarks
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Discussion
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: FHFA House Price Index MoM / House Price Purchase Index QoQ
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: House Price Purchase Index MoM
2/24/2026 at 09:00am EST: S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA / YoY NSA / S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA
2/24/2026 at 09:10am EST: Fed’s Waller Gives Keynote Address
2/24/2026 at 09:35am EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on AI
2/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index / Business Conditions
2/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence / Present Situation / Expectations
2/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Trade Sales MoM
2/24/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Services Activity
2/24/2026 at 03:15pm EST: Fed’s Barkin & Collins on Panel
2/25/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
2/25/2026 at 10:40am EST: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Panel
2/25/2026 at 01:20pm EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Role of Fed