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US Treasuries
- UST 10s on Friday closed at 3.96%
- The monthly range for 10s was: 3.96% / 4.28%
- 1st weekly resist at 3.91% / 3.92% 50% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly resist at 3.825% / 3.84%
- –> 1st monthly resist at 3.83% / 3.855% 54% to hold on the week
- –> 2nd monthly resist at 3.60% / 3.62% 50% to hold on the week
- 1st weekly support at 4.035% / 4.06% 50% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly support at 4.11% / 4.125% 67% to hold on the week
- –> 1st monthly support at 4.065% / 4.09% 50% to hold on the week [this has held for 2 months]
- –> 2nd monthly support at 4.14% / 4.16% 90% to hold on the week
Bloomberg: Treasuries Regain Edge as Safety Play With Best Month in Year
Bloomberg: Global Credit Spreads Widen Most in Months as Strains Mount
US Trade Fails
As of 2/27/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $23.80 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $7.86 million.

TIPS by Maturity (data through 2/18/2026)
Week over Week Changes by Maturity
- < 2 years: $24.9 Bn on 2/11/2026 to $23.4 Bn on 2/18/2026 = ($1.5 Bn)
- 2 – 6 years: $5.3 Bn on 2/11/2026 to $3.0 Bn on 2/18/2026 = ($2.3 Bn)
- 6 – 11 years: $1.5 Bn on 2/11/2026 to $1.4 Bn on 2/18/2026= ($0.1 Bn)
- > 11 years: $1.0 Bn on 2/11/2026 to $1.4 Bn on 2/18/2026 = $0.4 Bn

In the News
OilPrice: US Oil Drilling Activity Slows as Oil Prices Jump
dallasfed.org: AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest
ZeroHedge: AI Takeover Complete: Data Center Construction Surpasses Office Construction For the First Time
DealershipGuy: Near-New Used Cars Challenge Traditional ‘Sweet Spot’ in Q4
Upcoming US Treasury Supply

Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations

Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/02/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- 3/02/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 3/03/2026: Wards Total Vehicle Sales
- 3/03/2026 at 09:55am EST: Fed Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
- 3/03/2026 at 11:55am EST: Fed Kashkari Speaks at 2026 Bloomberg Invest Conference
- 3/04/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/04/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Employment Change
- 3/04/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 3/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / ISM Services Prices Paid
- 3/04/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services New Orders / ISM Services Employment
- 3/04/2026 at 02:00pm EST: Fed Releases Beige Book
- 3/05/2026 at 07:30am EST: Challenger Job Cuts YoY / Total
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM and YoY / ex Petroleum
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Export Price Index MoM and YoY
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 3/05/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Retail Sales Advance MoM / Ext Auto MoM / Ex Auto and Gas / Retail Sales Control Group
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls / Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / YoY / Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 3/06/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 3/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: Business Inventories
- 3/06/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
- 3/06/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Monday, March 2, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases

Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
