US Treasuries
- UST 10s on Wednesday closed at 4.21%.
- 1st weekly support at 4.23% / 4.25% 50% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly support at 4.38% / 4.395%
- –> 1st monthly support at 4.065% / 4.09% [this has held for 2 months]
- –> 2nd monthly support at 4.14% / 4.16%
- 1st weekly resist at 4.04% / 4.07% 90% to hold on the week
- 2nd weekly resist at 3.96% / 3.98% 90% to hold on the week
- –> 1st monthly resist at 3.83% / 3.855%
On Deck: Tomorrow, Thursday, 3/12/26: $22 billion UST 30y Bond Auction
US Treasury Trade Fails
As of 3/10/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $30.48 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $28.23 million.
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
The War started on February 28. March 10 is day 11. The national average of gas prices is up 20%.
The Cleveland Fed nowcast has March CPI at 0.47%, Y/Y at 2.87%.
These numbers will only keep increasing with higher gas prices.
The 10-year is now up 28 bps since the War began (8 trading days).
The 2-year yield, a proxy for Fed policy, is up 26.5 bps since the war began.
In the News
OilPrice: Central Banks Scramble as War Drives Up Inflation Expectations
SupplyChainBrain: China’s Cosco Halts Panama Port Operations as Tensions Rise
MarketMinute: The Great Beef Squeeze: Why Cattle Prices Are Hitting Historic Highs in 2026
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/07/2026 – 03/19/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 3/12/2026 at 08:30am EST: Trade Balance / Imports MoM / Exports MoM
- 3/12/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 3/12/2026 at 08:30am EST: Housing Starts / Building Permits / Housing Starts MoM / Building Permits MoM
- 3/12/2026 at 11:00am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Basel III
- 3/12/2026 at 12:00pm EST: Household Change in Net Worth
- 3/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Real Personal Spending
- 3/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Price Index MoM and YoY / Core PCE Price Index MoM and YoY
- 3/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 3/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 3/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
- 3/13/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Consumption / Core PCE Price Index QoQ
- 3/13/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 3/13/2026 at 10:00am EST: U of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 4-10 Yr Inflation
- 3/13/2026 at 10:00am EST: JOLTS Job Openings and Openings Rate / JOLTS Quits Level and Quits Rate
- 3/16/2026 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 3/16/2026 at 09:15am EST: Industrial Production MoM / Manufacturing (SIC) Production / Capacity Utilization
- 3/16/2026 at 10:00am EST: NAHB Housing Market Index
- 3/17/2026 at 07:00am EST: Bloomberg March United Sates Economic Survey
- 3/17/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 3/17/2026 at 08:30am EST: New York Fed Services Business Activity
- 3/17/2026 at 10:00am EST: Leading Index
- 3/17/2026 at 10:00am EST: Pending Home Sales MoM / YoY
- 3/18/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM and YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM and YoY
- 3/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM and YoY
- 3/18/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans /Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 3/18/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 3/18/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision / Fed Interest on Reserve Balance / Fed Reverse Repo Rate
- 3/18/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Median Interest Rate Forecast
- 3/18/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Thursday, March 12, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
