US Treasuries
- 1st daily resistance is 4.17/4.175 50% to hold
- 2nd daily resistance is 4.125/4.13 50% to hold
- 1st weekly resistance at 4.125/4.16 75% to hold
- 1st daily support is 4.23/4.24 71% to hold
- 2nd daily support is 4.26/4.265 90% to hold
- 1st weekly support at 4.33/4.35 90% to hold
- 3rd monthly support at 4.27/4.30
On Deck Tomorrow: Wednesday, 3/16/26, at 02:00pm ET: FOMC Rate Decision
Join Us for our Next Conference Call: Thursday, March 19, 2026, Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
This is my “worksheet” that gives an estimate of gasoline’s impact on inflation. The top panel is the monthly average of gasoline pries, calculated from the daily updates above. Last month (February), gasoline prices averaged $2.93. The March monthly average is now $3.47. But see the chart above, the last (March 16) reading was $3.79. So, this average will keep going up.
The second panel shows how much gasoline prices have changed. This is the average from February to March average to date. Gasoline prices are up 18.28% to date. Again, the last reading (March 16) is about 30 cents higher, so this will continue to go up.
The third panel is Gasoline’s weight in CPI. It is currently 2.81%.
The fourth panel is gasoline’s impact on the monthly CPI. It is simply multiplying its monthly change (second panel) by its weight (third panel). It is suggested that gasoline ALONE will add 0.5% to CPI.
The fifth (bottom) panel shows the latest monthly readings. If gasoline is push on March CPI 0.5%, I assume everything else will add 0.2%, for a 0.7% March CPI (which again updates higher everyday). This will be the highest monthly reading since June 1.3% June 2022 (which is one of the highest readings ever).
In the News
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/07/2026 – 03/19/2026: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
- 3/18/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Final Demand MoM and YoY / PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM and YoY
- 3/18/2026 at 08:30am EST: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM and YoY
- 3/18/2026 at 10:00am EST: Factory Orders / Factory Orders Ex Trans /Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 3/18/2026 at 10:00am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 3/18/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Rate Decision / Fed Interest on Reserve Balance / Fed Reverse Repo Rate
- 3/18/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Median Interest Rate Forecast
- 3/18/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Total Net TIC Flows / Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 3/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Jobless 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 3/19/2026 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims / Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- 3/19/2026 at 10:00am EST: New Home Sales / New Home Sales MoM
- 3/19/2026 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
- 3/19/2026: Building Permits / Building Permits MoM
- 3/20/2026 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
- 3/21/2026 at 01:30pm EST: Fed’s Powell Award Acceptance Remarks
- 3/23/2026 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 3/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 3/24/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 3/24/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 3/24/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 3/24/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 3/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index / Business Conditions
Upcoming Earnings Releases for Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Noteworthy Before-the-Open Earnings Releases
Noteworthy After-the-Close Earnings Releases
