US Treasuries
- 1st daily resistance is 4.295/4.305 88% to hold
- 2nd daily resistance is 4.265/4.275 90% to hold
- 1st weekly resistance at 4.30/4.32 90% to hold
- 1st daily support is 4.40/4.415 53% to hold
- 2nd daily support is 4.435/4.445 83% to hold
- 1st weekly support at 4.435/4.465 57% to hold
- 3rd monthly support at 4.27/4.30
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
Tick chart of the last seven hours of 10-year yield trading (everything else like stocks and oil are the same).
To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we either have to forcibly open it or find a diplomatic solution with hardliners who don’t want to deal with us. Their is no third option.
Bond yields collapsed because they thought, for a brief moment, that we were working on a diplomatic solution, not a full TACO retreat. They shot back up because Iran said we were not.
Same chart for oil as 10-year yields above.
All weekend I read, and heard a podcast saying “buy oil” as the price is going to $200. That might be true… eventually.
But between now and then, we’re going to have to suffer through unbelievable drawdowns, as algos will be forced to liquidate because the diplomatic solution word was in a headline.
Yesterday was 22 days since it began. The national average of gasoline prices is up 97 cents (32%).
In the News
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 3/23/2026 at 08:30am EST: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 3/23/2026 at 10:00am EST: Construction Spending MoM
- 3/24/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 3/24/2026 at 08:30am EST: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity
- 3/24/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs
- 3/24/2026 at 09:45am EST: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI / Services PMI / Composite PMI
- 3/24/2026 at 10:00am EST: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index / Business Conditions
- 3/24/2026 at 06:00pm EST: Fed’s Michael Barr Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 3/25/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 3/25/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index MoM / Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
- 3/25/2026 at 08:30am EST: Import Price Index YoY / Export Price Index MoM / Export Price Index YoY
- 3/25/2026 at 04:10am EST: Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation on Digital Assets
- 3/26/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 3/26/2026 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
- 3/26/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Financial Stability
- 3/26/2026 at 06:30pm EST: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Balance Sheet
- 3/26/2026 at 07:00pm EST: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on the US Economy
- 3/26/2026 at 07:10pm EST: Fed’s Barr in Moderated Conversation
- 3/27/2026 at 06:00am EST: Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
- 3/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. Of Mich. Sentiment / Current Conditions / Expectations
- 3/27/2026 at 10:00am EST: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation / 5-10 Yr Inflation
- 3/27/2026 at 11:00am EST: Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- 3/27/2026 at 11:30am EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Monetary Policy Conference
- 3/27/2026 at 11:40am EST: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
- 3/30/2026 at 10:30am EST: Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity
- 3/30/2026 at 04:00pm EST: Fed’s Williams Speaks on the Economy