US Treasuries
10s closed on Thursday at 4.30
- 1st daily support is 4.36/4.365
- 2nd daily support is 4.43/4.44
- 1st weekly support at 4.51/4.53 90% to hold
- 1st monthly support 4.465/4.495 50% to hold
- 1st daily resistance is 4.265/4.275 50% to hold
- 2nd daily resistance is 4.23/4.24
- 1st weekly resistance at 4.31/4.33 53% to hold
- 2nd weekly resistance at 4.23/4.25
- 1st monthly resistance at 4.095/4.125 60% to hold
Bloomberg: IMF Says Fed Has Little Scope for Interest-Rate Cut This Year
Conference Call Replay
No sign of labor weakness: *US JOBLESS CLAIMS 202,000 IN MARCH 28 WEEK; EST. 212K
During the Conference Call Crude Oil reversed hard, fell over $5 in 90 minutes (again largely when I was on the call).
This might be the catalyst, a couple of tankers are making a run for in through the Strait.
*DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008
FYI: This is spot oil price for immediate delivery in the North Sea.
Brent futures are now quoting June, mean May settlement for June delivery. This price is $107, up $6 today.
Why is Dated Brent so high? The the Strait of Hormuz closure has blocked a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude supply for over a month, leaving refiners desperate to grab any immediately available North Sea shipments, which are now running dry.
Dated Brent is the spot price for physical oil cargoes ready for immediate delivery at specific North Sea terminals like Sullom Voe Scotland.
So, the shortage is NOW in Scotland, which is why the price is $141.
In the News
You saw it here first… Our latest Arbor Data Science Podcast will be released on Monday, April 6th in Daily Data Points
Arbor Data Science Podcast: K Shaped Economy Hits the Road (featuring Petr Pinkhasov)
For additional reading on this topic from Arbor Data Science: Used Car Market Gains Speed
US Treasury Trade Fails
As of 4/01/2026, U.S. Treasury Fails were $25.17 billion and U.S. Agency Fails were $12.15 million.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 4/03/2026 at 10:15am EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Dallas Fed Banking Conference
- 4/03/2026 at 12:45am EST: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Change in Private Payrolls / Change in Manufact. Payrolls
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Change
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Hourly Earnings MoM / Average Hourly Earnings YoY
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Average Weekly Hours All Employees
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: Unemployment Rate / Labor Force Participation Rate / Underemployment Rate
- 4/03/2026 at 08:30am EST: S&P Global US Services PMI / S&P Global US Composite PMI
- 4/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Reschedules March Services PMI
- 4/06/2026 at 10:00am EST: ISM Services Index / Prices Paid / New Orders / Employment
- 4/07/2026 at 08:15am EST: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 4/07/2026 at 08:30am EST: Durable Goods Orders / Durables Ex Transportation
- 4/07/2026 at 08:30am EST: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air / Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
- 4/07/2026 at 11:00am EST: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations
- 4/07/2026 at 12:35pm EST: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 4/07/2026 at 03:00pm EST: Consumer Credit
- 4/08/2026 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 4/08/2026 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 4/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Personal Consumption
- 4/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: PCE Index MoM and YoY / Core PCE Price Index MoM and YoY and QoQ
- 4/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg / Continuing Claims
- 4/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: GDP Annualized QoQ / GDP Price Index
- 4/09/2026 at 10:0am EST: Wholesale Inventories MoM / Wholesale Trade Sales MoM