US Treasuries
- 1st daily resistance is 4.225/4.23 63% to hold
- 2nd daily resistance is 4.13/4.14 90% to hold
- 1st weekly resistance at 4.24/4.27 76% to hold
- 2nd weekly resistance at 4.14/4.17 50% to hold
- 1st monthly resistance at 4.095/4.125 75% to hold
- 1st daily support is 4.31/4.32 80% to hold
- 2nd daily support is 4.35/4.36
- 1st weekly support at 4.435/4.455
- 1st monthly support 4.465/4.495 86% to hold
On Deck Tomorrow, Thursday, 4/09/26: $22 billion UST 30y Bond Auction (Reopening)
Bloomberg: Fed Minutes Show Officials See Dual-Sided Risks From Iran War
Intraday Commentary From Jim Bianco
The last plot is through 9:43 AM ET today (April 8th). It is on track to be the highest of the last month. Again, this has to go to zero for shipping to start moving through the Strait. Note that the uptick in Iranian shooting is being dismissed, for now, as part of the Iranian’s “Mosaic Strategy” where the sector commanders have autonomy of shooting missiles and drones with a central approval.
Markets and the US military understand this and will be patient for another 24 hours to get the message to all these sector commanders to stop shooting so shipping can start moving through the Strait En Masse.
Some relevant red headlines crossing Bloomberg this morning:
*QATAR BEGINS WORK TO RESUME PRODUCTION AT LNG EXPORT PLANT
*OIL SHIPS PASSAGE VIA HORMUZ HALTED AFTER LEBANON STRIKES: FARS
*SAUDI ARABIA’S CRUCIAL EAST-WEST PIPELINE HIT BY DRONE ATTACK
*SAUDI OIL PIPELINE DAMAGE SAID TO BE LIMITED AFTER DRONE STRIKE
Just as I posted the above, another update was released (through 10:45AM ET, April 8th). Now today is 149, the highest since 200 were fired on March 8. (I left off the chart Feb 28 and March 1 when they fired 400 each day).
So, day 1 of the ceasefire is seeing the highest day since the early days of the war. Again, let’s see what tomorrow brings once the word gets to sector commanders to stop shooting (assuming that is what they are being told).
In the News
OilPrice: Jet Fuel Shortages May Persist for Months After Hormuz Reopens
ZeroHedge: These Consumer Goods Could Be First To Vanish As “Supply Shock” Disrupts Asian Factories
News6: A goat, a sheep and a news anchor get stuck: How Florida’s drought is getting dangerous
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 4/09/2026 at 08:30am EST: Personal Income / Personal Spending / Personal Consumption
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