US Treasuries
- Tuesday’s range for UST 10y: 4.375% – 4.43%, closing at 4.41%
- Tuesday’s range for UST 30y: 4.91% – 4.97%, closing at 4.94%
- Tomorrow, Wednesday (7/9/25): FOMC Meeting Minutes
Dallas Fed: Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Join us for our next Conference Call, Thursday, July 10th, Featuring Jim Bianco
Intraday Commentary from Jim Bianco
Why is the dollar rallying? Because US yields are higher.
This relationship broke down on Liberation Day (April 2), but appears to have reconnected around April 30. In other words, it stopped working during the shaded area, where the dollar fell, and then reconnected with the dollar at a lower level.
So, we are back to your yield outlook is your dollar outlook, like it was before April 2.
All the talk of the “end of American Exceptionalism” only lasted a few weeks.
Upcoming US Treasury Supply
Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations
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Upcoming Economic Releases & Fed Speak
- 7/09/2025 at 07:00am EST: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 7/09/2025 at 10:00am EST: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM / Wholesale Inventories MoM
- 7/09/2025 at 02:00pm EST: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 7/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Initial Jobless Claims / Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg
- 7/10/2025 at 08:30am EST: Continuing Claims
- 7/10/2025 at 09:00am EST: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on US Economy and Monetary Policy
- 7/10/2025 at 02:30pm EST: Fed’s Daly Speaks on US Economic Outlook
- 7/11/2025 at 02:00pm EST: Federal Budget Balance
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Empire Manufacturing
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI MoM / CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI YoY / CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: CPI Index NSA / CPI Core Index SA
- 7/15/2025 at 08:30am EST: Real Avg Hourly Earnings YoY
- 7/15/2025 at 02:45pm EST: Fed’s Collins will deliver closing keynote remarks
- 7/15/2025 at 06:45pm EST: Fed’s Logan Speaks on the Economy
- 7/15/2025: Fed’s Barkin gives speech in Baltimore